According to a new report released by MIDiA — By 2033, global recorded music revenues are expected to grow by 62.9% to $121.1 billion, from $74.3 billion in 2025, as expanded rights become the second-fastest growing source of revenue after streaming.
The MIDiA Research 2026–2033 Global Music Forecasts preview outlines a major transformation in the music business, moving from a pure streaming market into a highly diversified ecosystem.
Here is the strategic breakdown of the report’s key findings:
The Headline Growth Numbers
Total Value Boom: Global recorded music revenue is projected to grow 62.9%, jumping from $74.3 billion in 2025 to $121.1 billion by 2033.
Growth Acceleration: Market growth quickened significantly from 7.3% in 2024 to 11.4% in 2025, largely thanks to expanded rights outperforming the rest of the market.
The Five-Year Milestone: The industry will generate more revenue growth over the next five years than it did in the previous five.
The DSP vs. Label Revenue Gap
Retail vs. Trade: Retail revenue (what consumers spend) is growing faster than trade revenue (what is paid out to rightsholders/labels).
Leverage Shift: Streaming platforms (DSPs) are keeping a larger share of the pie by offering bundle discounts and promotional tools like Spotify Discover Mode.
Non-Music Features: DSPs are successfully capturing revenue from areas that aren’t shared with music labels, such as podcasting.
The “Next Era” of Streaming & ARPU Rebound
Market Maturity: Traditional streaming growth is slowing down as user adoption peaks in core regions.
ARPU Recovery: Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) declined in 2025 due to aggressive free trials. However, it will return to growth starting in 2026 through steady price increases, fewer free trials, and new premium tiers.
Rise of the $18.5 Billion Fan Economy
With traditional streaming maturing, record labels are aggressively monetizing fandom. This segment is the second-fastest-growing sector in the industry and will reach $18.5 billion by 2033 across three distinct categories:
Expanded Rights: Label shares in non-recorded revenue like merch and brand partnerships.
Non-DSP Streaming: Music licensing revenue coming from non-traditional digital partners like Meta, TikTok, Snap, Roblox, and Peloton.
Physical Media: Direct sales of vinyl and CDs targeted specifically at superfans.
Shifting Global Dominance
The Global South: Markets in Latin America, Asia Pacific, and the rest of the world have firmly established themselves as the primary engines for new subscription sign-ups.
China’s Rise: China is expected to continue leading the world in the total number of music subscribers, and it will climb to become the second-largest recorded music market by revenue by 2033, trailing only the US.
Direct Country-by-Country Market Rankings (2025 vs. 2033)
Top Music Subscription Markets by Total Users
In 2025:
#1 China
#2 United States
#3 Brazil
#4 Japan
#5 United KingdomIn
2033:
#1 China
#2 United States
#3 India (New entry to Top 3)
#4 Brazil
#5 Japan
Top Music Subscription Markets by Retail Revenue
In 2025:
#1 United States
#2 China
#3 United Kingdom
#4 Germany
#5 Japan
In 2033:
#1 United States (Maintains the top revenue spot)
#2 China
#3 United Kingdom
#4 Germany
#5 Japan
Aside from the massive $121.1 billion headline figure, several distinct strategic insights stand out from the data in this report:
The “Hidden” Audio Ad-Supported Slowdown
MIDiA revealed that their previous forecasts for audio ad-supported revenue (like free Spotify tiers) missed the mark, coming in 8.2% below what they expected. The report calls out a major headwind: heavy competition from podcasts is cannibalizing consumer time and pulling advertising dollars away from traditional free music tiers.
Generative AI: From Consumer to Creator
A core undercurrent of the report is how Generative AI is reshaping the entire creative value chain. MIDiA notes that AI is widening the creative funnel so aggressively that Gen AI will account for 38% of all music software, sounds, and services revenues by 2033. This technology is actively turning passive music consumers into casual creators, creating massive competition for traditional streaming platforms’ attention share.
Retail is Outgrowing Trade (The Bundle Effect)
Retail revenues (what fans pay) are growing faster than trade revenues (what labels receive). Streaming services are successfully retaining a larger cut of the profits by leaning heavily into multi-entertainment bundling (combining music with audiobooks or video) and promotional monetization features like Spotify Discover Mode.
Physical Media as the “Kingmaker”
Even in an overwhelmingly digital future, the report explicitly stresses that record labels must bolster fandom revenue streams. Vinyl and CDs are classified as major growth drivers within the $18.5 billion fan economy segment, acting as a crucial revenue buffer for labels looking to monetize dedicated superfans directly.
